Thursday, April 21, 2016

Gas sales in new fiscal year begin on a sour note

Stephen Hume
Premier Clark and friends are organizing demonstrations, trying to keep the LNG fantasy alive with voters, at least for another year.

BC Liberals won't admit economic reality but producers have already passed judgment on the future of the BC gas industry. Looking at monthly sales of gas rights, we find the six worst-ever sale results have occurred in the year since April 2015. Three of the four months of 2016 rank in the worst six.

This has nothing to do with First Nations, fossil fuel critics or political opponents of Premier Clark. It has everything to do with international markets and the likelihood of profitably selling BC gas, even gas that benefits from huge subsidies and zero or near zero royalty costs.

Australian LNG producers face price crunch as Asian buyers flex muscle, The Sydney Morning Herald, April 19, 2016
...With the US on track to potentially export 60 million tonnes a year of LNG by 2020, representing nearly a fifth of global supply, Asian buyers will increasingly play hard-ball when existing deals are reworked, according to Citi's New York-based energy analyst Faisel Khan...

"Everything that has been sanctioned and received a construction permit has moved forward," Mr Khan said. "You're going to see one [LNG] train every six months through 2020."

"It's under construction, you can't stop it, its going to happen no matter what. They already have contracts. But the customers of those plants are not obligated to buy the supply. They just hold the capacity, so that gives them a lot of flexibility."

US exports of LNG are set to add to oversupply in world markets, and while the drop in Asian prices means most US exports will probably be shipped to Europe instead, that may change depending on the reaction of Russia, the big pipeline gas supplier into Europe, Mr Burns said.
"The big elephant in the global gas room is Russia and what they do," he said...

"There is quite a scary bearish scenario out there for LNG," Mr Burns said.
$40 Billion LNG Project In Australia Cancelled Amid Low Prices,, a CNBC Partner Site, March 23, 2016
The crash in LNG prices has claimed a major victim. Woodside Petroleum and its partners, which include Royal Dutch Shell, BP, and PetroChina have decided to cancel a massive LNG project in Australia because the economics no longer work...

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  1. " Premier Clark and friends are organizing demonstrations " And just think... the nice and very giving taxpayers paid for Christy & no doubt her entourage to fly up to Fort St. John.
    Does Christy attend all rallies in BC or just the one's that helps her continous re=election campaign.... again supported by taxpayers.

    Guy in Victoria

  2. Organizing demonstrations, you mean "duping" the locals to support her parties agenda, to ensure the donations keep rolling in and the "party faithful" both corporate and contractor, continue to "feed at the trough". Getting tired of the same old corruption and malfeasance. This party has to be removed from power, and key individuals along with sponsors and or supporters, investigated and ultimately jailed.
    Organize crime is alive and well in BC governance.

  3. And I though Alberta's royalty structure was bad.

    I think it's time for counter "organized demonstrations"

  4. I wonder if 'contributions' to clark and her party from lng companies exceed any revenues that BC is gleaning from lng.

  5. Those silly Australians just don't realize all that's needed is for PM Malcom Turnbull to hold a combination photo-op/blame the Official opposition/party fundraiser off the back of a truck. After negotiating a 25-year giveaway contract for their natural gas at the lowest prices in the world, of course.

    Woodside Petroleum and its partners won't be able to resist.



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