Monday, May 4, 2015

Albertans will choose

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6 comments:

  1. Isn't it ironic that Alberta would lead themselves and maybe Canada out of the political darkness of corporate greed, government maleficence and resource theft.

    CGHZD

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    1. Ironic yes, but mostly because the federal cons are about to be hoisted by their own petard... in that duffy will ultimately expose all whereas the cons were intending to continue using him as a fund raising cash cow, but somehow that narrative has become WAY mutated and all too transparent

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  2. scotty on denmanMay 5, 2015 at 11:54 AM

    Um, actually the Calgary Herald endorses Prentice---but then so does the Globe an Mail. That's hardly surprising. I get the growing right-wing bias of most MSM, I don't put much stock in their journalism or the polls they publish---they've been too consistently wrong, too many times, and in a way that benefited the corporatists' preference for me to ever trust them again.

    For me, waiting to see the results from Albetar is trumping making a prediction by two-to-one; the first is inaccurate polling in the last Albetar election---the incumbent right-wing party unexpectedly beat the contender, also right-wing. Pollsters' excuses for their wildy inaccurate polls sounded disingenuous repeating, as they did, conspicuously inaccurate polls that preceded the heart-breaker NDP loss in BC which forms my second reason prediction gets trumped---in BC's case the ideological differences between the contenders couldn't be starker, and the winners which bucked a 20-point disadvantage not only congratulated themselves, but took the resulting licence to actually intensify the perfidy which they now hardly bother to conceal---a real tragedy.

    The remaining one the first two trump is the equally unexpected NDP coup in Quebec which, along with the collapse of the Liberal vote (i.e., the real reason Harper won: by default) made it the Official Opposition for the first time in its history---which probably didn't give it as much influence as it had when Broadbent's NDP extracted social policy from the Trudeau Liberals in return for supporting the latter's minority, but of which I for one am encouraged.

    So at one point I felt that I could trust neither polls, the BC NDP I normally support (I mean, that's what Dix's stupid "positive campaign" did to me and many others), nor my compatriots to get off their asses to vote. John Horgan's leadership is going a long way in quelling my rage at the NDP for its cavalier campaign tactics when so much was at stake (I voted for him the first time around and have to get over the fact he's not Premier right now); I can only pray my fellow voters have learned their lesson: leaving it up to a minority leaves them in control, and polls should never lead to the presumption that it's in the bag so you don't have to bother voting. Maybe my prayers are getting answered: I sense a participatory build (like Jeez! what took ya so long?)

    But given the importance strategic voting will play in the upcoming federal election, polls remain a problem. Strategic voters will have to be careful when deciding which candidate is most likely to beat the Conservative in their respective ridings, especially in close races. To inaccurate polls must be added riding boundary adjustment as a common difficultly in discerning which candidate to strategically vote for because previous election results will have to be interpolated to apply to new ridings, many of which seem to have intentionally split regions of left-leaning voters. Fortunately a number of orgs are doing this work for our admittedly lazy electorate; most of these will publish their rolling polls at intervals leading up to the election, and their work will be available at their websites.

    Ok, that being said, I'm sure hoping the NDP wins Albetar; I might even abandon my sniggering typo if it does. Still gonna wait and see though.

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  3. I've been paying attention to Éric Grenier who is forecasting

    Seats: 55 NDP, 25 WR, 6 PC
    Percentages: 44.5 NDP, 25.9 WR and 23 7 PC.

    Grenier predicts Rachel Notley will win from 48 to 61 seats with their vote percentage in a range of 37 to 51. He says that pollsters left the field too early in the last election and that this time, most continued surveying until the final days of the campaign. Therefore, any final opinion swings should be apparent. Certainly, there are examples of wildly inaccurate polls but there are many more examples of polls being broadly correct..

    For Notley to become Premier, it will take a majority victory because Wild Rose and Conservative are Tweedledum and Tweedledee. That was proven when nine Wildrose MLAs, including leader Danielle Smith, crossed to Alberta’s governing Conservative party in December 2014. If Notley finishes with 40 or fewer, the two main opposition parties will coalesce and form government. The powerful oil industry will ensure a merger happens although principled conservatives may not be easily manipulated.

    I suspect that if successful, Alberta NDP members will be looking at a change from the first-past-the-post electoral system. Alberta has seldom had an effective opposition and powerful governments beholden to special interests have been the norm. The system has never reflected the diversity of Alberta and maybe that is about to change.

    Whatever the result tonight, perhaps we are seeing the stirring of the majority. When the Prentice government imposed many new taxes and program cuts on citizens, while it placed no burden on industry, it may have put a nail in its own coffin.



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  4. Like so many others I'm looking forward to following the results tonight. What has really caught my attention is the ammount of headlines claiming that an NDP government will be the worst thing for Alberta. Go figure.

    Guy in Victoria

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  5. G. Barry StewartMay 5, 2015 at 10:02 PM

    I responded earlier from my other Mac… where Safari doesn't work here for some reason. In that lost response, I mentioned that I was hesitant to get excited about pre-election poll numbers, after the last Alberta and BC elections blew the polls out of the water. Now we know today's results.

    Much will be read into this huge — I will say "unthinkable" — result for the NDP in Alberta. I've got to think that it's a good sign for democracy across Canada. Ruling parties that are long in the tooth should be readying their bags and filling out their pension papers. Even without the help of mainstream media, the Alberta NDP has risen from virtually nothing to take the reins in Canada's most reliably Conservative province.

    I just can't think straight, I'm so shocked… though full of hope.

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