Tuesday, January 22, 2013

BC political alignments remain stable

When the watercarriers report that massive government advertising is making a material difference to BC Liberal fortunes, be inclined to skepticism. Last November, Stephen Smart, CBC's Liberal correspondent, said Angus Reid's poll gave new hope to the Clark government. Except an analysis of decided and leaning voters suggested nothing much had changed.

Angus-Reid's January poll again demonstrates that rather little has changed. Michael Smyth raced the folks at NW to announce that government strategy was working successfully. The news that excited them?

The two parties supported by big business remain at 41%. The two parties not supported by big business remain at 56%. Liberals up two points, Conservatives down two points, Greens gain one and the NDP lose one. None of this is significant because, as Angus Reid points out:
"The margin of error — which measures sampling variability — is +/- 3.5%."
My argument in November was that BC's political alignments had been relatively stable. That remains true although the fact is unlikely to be reported in the corporate media.





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7 comments:

  1. Smoke and mirrors once again, what's the pollster trying to prove?
    I thought they were supposed to be unbiased.
    No matter how you slice this the BC libs are done...like burnt toast...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Norm: This morning Canada's Nate Silver, Threehundredeight.com, upped BCNDP's probability of winning the election to 94% from 91% based on the Angus Reid poll. But what does a statistician know compared to a "pundit" who doesn't even know what margin of error means?

    ReplyDelete
  3. It is shameful how the MSM spins for the Liberals.It is going to get worse over the next 113 days,especially once the attack ad's increase.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "NDP,Liberals tied in Interior" was the headline on the front page of the lieberal fart catching Glacier owned rag in Kamloops this morning. They've got to protect their $500,000.00 investment in these bums.
    Surly,anyone with an eye and an asshole would look at a 13% increase in less than two months would know that the spin cycle has started in earnest.
    The push is on from the dark side.

    CGHZD

    ReplyDelete
  5. Agreed and shame on Mike Smyth for his misleading headline and lazy analysis. It is similar to claiming that after only one win a team is on a winning streak! As well, he is trying to tie attack ads to the results. No cause and effect clear to most of us.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Crowing about this statistically insignificant poll is pathetic. But, hey, if this is the way it has to play out, hopefully it'll also be nemesistic ( a made-up word borrowed from Ancient Greek drama, like "pathetic" does from "Pathos", to mean the bad guys categorically get what's coming to them.)

    Step-hen Smart's reporting has real objectivity and credibility problems ever since it was revealed that his wife was actually one of Christy Clark's propaganda hacks, coupled with what appeared to be his consistent pro-BC Liberal bias and instant, unapologetic defensiveness about his perceived (at least) conflict of interest. The revelation came from right here on Norm's site and probably was instrumental in Smart's wife resigning her Premier's Office position which, given the dismal prospect for this disgraced BC Liberal government, was a much smaller career loss than Smart's at the CBC. The Mother Corp can be assured it will have a sharp critic of the next NDP government. And If the BC Liberals cease to exist after this May's drubbing, Smart's erstwhile bias won't anymore be so starkly apparent.

    If BC voters were typical of most elsewhere, one might expect the polling number spread to narrow as we approach the election scaffold: most voters only engage policy issues, and only the ones presented in the campaign, just before entering the polling booth. But nobody can be completely immune to the bombardment of political rhetoric all dressed up as sincere promises. Here the BC Liberal government is certainly taking unfair advantage of its incumbency by inappropriately paying for its flood of partisan propaganda out of public coffers. What should be plain pamphleteering, paid for by clearly identified sponsors, has instead a certain authoritativeness, being under the heading of "The Government of BC", that is probably enough to sway your typical low-info voter. Yet the popular opinion Christy is attempting to mould by the incessant rote of the "lost decade of the 90s" has been nullified by the equally low-info agreement that this government has been the most unethical in BC's history. And the pocketbook, not being all that far from the brain, already knows the BC Liberals are economic charlatans. IMHO, BC voters are not all that typical because we've been through three years of exceptional political upheaval, more so than any other province (and I include Quebec.) We beat ourselves up so bad with the BC Liberals we're bound to be more thoughtful this time.

    We who would banish this failed neo-right experiment should not become disheartened by the inevitable narrowing of the NDP's lead. Neither is this the time for complacency, rather better prepare to fight for our lives harder than ever if we want the BC Liberals to meet their nemesis.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Bctaxpayer had this to say:
    Re attack ads…- Risky Clark do you remember the Conference Center at 600,000 million $$$$$$$ over budget ? Do you remember how you lied about the hated HST ? Do you remember paying off the basi verk jerks criminals 6 Million $$$$$$ because they are BC lie berals ,Do you remember,BC Rail deal ? Do you remember BC Hydro deal ?, do you remember being 400,000 million $$$ over budget on BC Place roof that leaks, do you remember using 15 million $$$$$ of tax payer’s money for your attack ads that are working against you ?do you remember corrupt gordo I’m sure you do and so do We all BC taxpayer’s do remember and will never forget.

    It was so good – I wanted to ensure, it be read here also.

    Commentary – Priceless!

    ReplyDelete

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