Thursday, December 16, 2010

Will history write a story of one party's self-destruction?

If the Mustel poll released Wednesday holds up, it appears than many BC citizens decided recently that the NDP is not ready to form an elected government. Mustel usually publishes results that are kinder to BC Liberals than those from Angus Reid, which, unlike Mustel, uses an online survey technique. Critics argue that online polls allow participants to self select. Yet, the 2009 Angus Reid pre-election polls were more accurate in predicting the popular vote.

In the recent Mustel poll, BC Liberals are in the driver seat again, rating at 41% compared to 36% for the NDP. Angus Reid had the parties on equal footing but both pollsters show a major reversal in NDP fortunes during the last month.

According to the Vancouver Sun:
"Mustel said the B.C. Liberal rebound is due to a move by female voters  away from the NDP. Liberals were backed by 39 per cent of female voters compared with 36 per cent for the NDP. This narrow gap stands in sharp contrast to the previous Mustel poll in November which gave the NDP support from 47 per cent of women compared with 30 for the B.C. Liberals. The gender gap in B.C. politics, with women favouring the NDP and men backing the B.C. Liberals, no longer stands, said Evi Mustel."
Partisans will argue about the significance or lack of significance of the new numbers but it appears that NDP losses were largely amongst women. The 20% swing is probably attributable to the malevolent revolt against the NDP's highest profile woman. 

Gordon Campbell's resignation makes the Liberal leadership a fight worth winning because it will not be accompanied with a certain trip to the Opposition side of the legislature. The NDP is now rating closer to its traditional levels and, unless the putsch leaders have an extraordinary new player in mind, it appears that the NDP's Opposition role will continue.

Mustel's polling reveals Christy Clark as the strongest Liberal contender and that is probably because she carries less direct responsibility for recent actions of the Liberal Government. However, during the campaign, it will become clear that apparatchiks gathered around Clark bear striking similarity to the ones picking public pockets under Premier Campbell. They are reportedly led by Gordon Campbell's chief strategist and BC Rail advisor, Patrick Kinsella.

Additionally, new CYA file memos, dated and notarized in 2003, prepared by Dave Basi and now in the hands of online journalist Alex Tsakumis, indicate that Clark's BC Rail ties are about to be exposed. Kevin Falcon is most closely associated with libertarian anti-government privatizers. His selection as leader may be difficult because his likelihood of inspiring a broad voter base is lower than others. Mike de Jong is a mere nuisance candidate, running because his ministry won't allow him to do anything so he has spare time to fill.

If Clark has to break off her campaign because of unsavory connections to BC Rail influence peddling, I see George Abbot emerging as the new leader. Despite his less than outstanding media persona, Abbot has strong support from his colleagues, which speaks well of direct interpersonal skills. He is also known as one minister who openly challenged Gordon Campbell over policy. No others can make that claim.

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  1. Please explain this poll then Norman, which is entirely different than Evi's.

  2. I'd need someone to explain the work Mr. Robbins does and the methodologies used. Perhaps, someone could also explain this piece of commentary that is part of poll result issued by Robbins:

    "I wrote a love letter to Concrete Blonde’s lead singer Johnette Napolitano--a few weeks back, not simply because I believe she is the best female rock voice of all time//sure Anne Wilson has the 100 mile fastball but so does Napolitano / who can change up her pitches like nothing I’ve seen//Mick and the Stones will want her and that spanky lead guitarist as guest in ‘Exile on Main Street//The Musical’ Tour -- Mr. Carville was ripping some chords off his instrument--good minds think alike.
    Concrete Blonde - Someday - Live David Letterman may show the way as the past reveals the future--and California considers (14%) Green support in that State. Every California citizen -- should feel the passion of Ms. Napolitano"

    I think they have a different approach from the major polling companies. Very different.

  3. Polls, shmolls and martians will be invading BC tomorrow...

  4. Norman,
    There appears to be a profound disconnect between recent polling results and the 'unfolding plan' of the plotters who managed to force Carole James's resignation. They also, and this probably troubles me more than anything, appear to have decided to forgo any actual discussion of the issue on the merits.

    Rather than contending with the apparent divisions in the party there is a troubling tendency to shoot at anyone (supporter, friend or disinterested observer) who suggests that there is trouble on the horizon.

    I notice you've been singled out for a bit of this as well Norman.

    I listened to Bob Plecas, Clark Roberts and Elizabeth Cull on Victoria CBC radio Friday morning. Seldom have I heard those three individuals agree so wholeheartedly with the observation that the NDP is in full-scale disarray.

    We have, I'd assert, a greater need for a united and cohesive opposition to the BC Liberal 'alternative' now than we have ever had - unfortunately, no one in the opposition ranks seems to give a damn.

  5. It will be unbearable enough, to put up with the Liberals, until 2013. The thought of them being in office 2013 and on, will drive me out of this province. The BC Liberal ministers and mla's, fully supported Campbell, they will be no better than he. The NDP in disarray, is another problem. Can they get it together enough, to lead? who knows. A lot of citizens, are looking at the BC First Party. BC people will have to wait and see, I guess. All I know is, I am fed up with the BC Liberals, lies, deceit and corruption. With the lid blown off, of Campbell's corrupt sale of the BCR...Hopefully this will deter the people, from voting the Liberals in again.



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