LNG and Employment in BC, Marc Lee, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, Juy 28, 2015:
This brief examines the BC government’s claim that 100,000 jobs will be created from liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in this province. We find that this claim is not credible and that potential employment impacts have been grossly overstated.
In fact, based on data provided by the companies that propose to engage in the production and transport of LNG, BC’s LNG sector could be expected to support only 2,000 to 3,000 construction jobs per plant over three years and 200 to 300 permanent workers once operational. Real-world experience in Australia supports these numbers.
- LNG job claims were inflated to 100,000 through a series of exaggerations and the misuse of input-output modelling techniques.
- the growing use of “fly-in, fly-out” (FIFO) workers is an emerging issue for large resource projects, including LNG development. Using FIFO workers greatly reduces local economic benefits in the areas where development takes place.
- To get to the “100,000 jobs” number used in the 2013 pre-election throne speech, in the weeks beforehand the BC government commissioned a consultancy, Grant Thornton (GT), to develop employment estimates. Included in the resulting Employment Impact Review was GT’s disclaimer that its analysis was based on information provided by the province.
- if LNG merely leads workers to shift from an already existing job to an LNG job, this benefit is limited to the difference in income received by the worker. If LNG leads workers to move from another jurisdiction to BC, this could be shown to have positive economic impact for BC; however, doing so ignores the offsetting negative impact on the other jurisdiction.
- The most suspect numbers in the GT report are in the indirect category, which comprises the majority of claimed new jobs...
- The rise of temporary migrant workers from other countries has also been widely noted. Numerous cases show that BC is already bringing in temporary foreign workers for projects in the north, including the upgrading of Rio Tinto Alcan’s aluminum smelter in Kitimat, BC Hydro’s Northwest Transmission Line and northern coal mines.
- Australia’s experience with a mature and expanding LNG industry is worth considering for lessons. Its LNG plants are located in relatively remote locations, similar to what is being proposed for BC. Construction is primarily done by migrant workers
- In Western Australia, 87 per cent of the construction workforce and 60 per cent of the operational workforce in the broader mining sector (including gas) are FIFO workers
Reducing BC’s carbon emissions to something close to zero within a few decades will require a lot of work to be done, including transportation, building retrofits and clean energy. If BC embraces that possibility, and plans appropriately, a full employment strategy around climate action would represent a pathway towards harmonizing environmental and economic policies — one that would create far more jobs than LNG.
- Recent data from Asian LNG markets shows that market prices have dropped substantially. Landed prices of LNG were $7.85 per unit in Japan and Korea and $7.45 in China as of February 2015.29 Thus, at current prices the export of BC LNG is not a profitable venture
Here's one of the better choices; one that is put at risk by Woodfibre LNG. It seems Sea-To-Sky Gondola offers about the same number of permanent jobs as the proposed LNG facility.